According to FiveThirtyEight, Trey Hollingsworth (R) is likely to defeat Liz Watson (D) in November.


FiveThirtyEight offers three House forecasts, none of which bode well for Liz Watson (D), who is challenging incumbent Trey Hollingsworth (R) in the 9th district congressional race.

How do you like your House forecast?

Lite: Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say

Classic: I’ll take the polls, plus all the “fundamentals”: fundraising, past voting in the district, historical trends and more

Deluxe: Gimme the works — the Classic forecasts plus experts’ ratings

It’s a grim prognosis.

Lite forecast: 98.2% chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 61.8% – 38.2%

Classic forecast: 78.3 chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 53% – 47%

Deluxe forecast: 90% chance the Republican (Hollingsworth) wins 55% – 45%

From a national perspective, FiveThirtyEight provides a bit of relief for Democrats.

Considering the source? I read something at FiveThirtyEight almost every day.

FiveThirtyEight. | Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about politics, sports, science, economics and culture.